French Presidential Poll

[Brian and Helen]

Well if Nick Griffith and the BNP got 18.1% of a vote in the UK there'd be hell to pay.

The media would be going mad demanding that "something be done about it". They'd be asking what had gone wrong in our society that could lead to such an appalling result - reams of self-examination and hand-wringing.

Brian

[peter]

The run off will be Sarkozy v Hollande.
So French centreish v slightly left of centrish.

First run results :

Hollande 28,6% 10 273 582

Sarkozy 27,2% 9 753 844

Le Pen 17,9% 6 421 773

Mélenchon 11,1% 3 985 298

Bayrou 9,1% 3 275 349

Joly 2,3% 828 451

Dupont-Aignan 1,8% 644 086

Poutou 1,1% 411 178

Arthaud 0,6% 202 562

Cheminade 0,2% 89 572

The talking point is the high position of Marina Le Pen (who took a majority in Gard) and where those voters will move next time round. The result is far from decided and the pundits are analysing the various scenarios.



Hover the mouse here - http://fr2012.election-maps.appspot.com ... mbed?hl=fr - to see individual department voting and double click for commune results.

Review by commune here : http://www.midilibre.fr/2012/04/20/les- ... 488172.php

Marine Le Pen took the majority of communes in Gard with over 35% of the vote in several communes.
Tiny Merial, Aude voted 50% for Le Pen. Not the place to move to ?

[Sandra]

The outskirts of Beziers seem to be very much for the NF

Magalas 29.6%
Pouzolles 26.9%
Abeilhan 32.9%

[Las-Cobas]

Well if Nick Griffith and the BNP got 18.1% of a vote in the UK there'd be hell to pay.

The media would be going mad demanding that "something be done about it". They'd be asking what had gone wrong in our society that could lead to such an appalling result - reams of self-examination and hand-wringing.

Brian

Brian,
The difference in mainland Europe and the UK we have PR, where as the UK first past the post system does not reflect the voting trends in the country, only in that Constituency on the day of vote. There have been many cases in the UK, where the the Government became the controlling party in the Commons because they attained the most seats .

In 2005 Tony Blair won only 35.2% of the vote, yet even though he lost 47 seats, he remained as Prime Minister with a majority of 355 seats.

At the same election Michael Howard won a 32.4% share of the vote but only won 198 seats, under 3% difference in votes, yet 157 seats lighter.

In mainland Europe it is an all encompassing democracy with PR, allowing all the political parties taking part in the democratic process. Here in France we have political parties ranging from the Trotskystes on left to the Front National on the right all with Senators, MP's Maire's, Conseil Générale, and Regional. All embrace the democratic process and are respected by their opponents, who work with them for the betterment of the French people.

Yet in the UK where the BNP is a legal political party, they are constantly harassed by pressure groups Like the ANL, various other Rag Bag organisations. They are demonized by the media and front bench members from all political parties who should be supporting their political aims.

If the French or any other Mainland European citizens wish to demonstrate, they do in their Hundreds, Thousands or Millions, and the government of the day take notice.

But in the UK and especially England the right to demonstrate is a dirty word and the special powers enacted under the terrorism act are used every way to suppress dissent. You will never attain the freedom of thought and association that is accepted as normal until you stop having your civil rights eroded.

They that can give up essential liberty to obtain a little temporary safety deserve neither liberty nor safety

Benjamin Franklin January 17, 1706 -April 17, 1790

[Brian and Helen]

Yes, I take your point, LasC, on the essential differences between PR and FPTP. Nonetheless - I don't think that the far right parties in the UK (BNP, UKIP et al) taken all together would even register the minimum 5% of the vote to ensure recognition - even the Greens only have one MP - for Brighton.

We really don't do extremists in England, y'know (we have very long memories of Moseley and his blackshirts in the 1930s and various "Looney Left" parties from the 1970s and 80s) so they're usually consigned to the ridicule and obscurity they deserve.

Brian

[catalanglais]

I found this fascinating!

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-17811923

[Brian and Helen]

Exactly Cat, assuming he is elected, M. Hollande will find his options severely constrained by l'actualite.

Having said that, as a good old-fashioned Keynsian (I studied Economics in the 60s!) I don't believe all this austerity is going to work. Much as I think Frau Merkel has been a pillar of strength during the Euro-crisis, if you clamp down too much you leave no room for growth, so the time for austerity is now over. It's only by growth, by getting economies moving again, making things and selling them, that the European economies (including UK) are going to get over this financial "dead zone". I think Osborne at least has got the idea from the way the deficit-reduction targets are currently being cut back.
Strangely enough, that's one success Obama has had in the US, for which he isn't being recognised yet.

Brian

[Genghis Cohen]

I agree that, whoever is elected, realpolitik will be what decides.

I'm not absolutely convinced by LCs glowing description of the way democracy works in France with PR. I can only really talk about politics at the local level (where I have the right to vote) but suspect they accurately mirror what happens in the upper echelons. There are good guys and bad guys. Not enough of the former, rather too many of the latter. What I do know for a fact is that, under Sarko, we have at last seen some action against corruption in the Mairie. Hardly a commune along the coast has escaped.

Some of us are old enough to remember what happened in the UK under Harold Wilson. God help us all if FH repeats the process and the socialists bow to union pressure unconditionally. It is perhaps worth remembering that, in France, less than 10% of the workforce are syndicalistes.

Genghis Cohen

[gurubarry]

I am fascinated by the French ..... they live in a bubble, almost totally divorced from the realities of Civilisation today. The Laws, Language, and Social Mores remain practically unchanged for centuries.Protectionism and Jingoism are common currency and the electorial system is unchanged despite all attempts at reform. The reality is starting to be realised that if the Socialists gain power, the economic stability of the Euro is threatened . The pound is rising alarmingly (thank heavens) on the chance of a Socialist President. If you need a reminder of the Socialist ethic and economic stategy in action , just look at the Soth and in particular Montpellier . People are beginning to leave to escape the Socialist ethic of "Borrow and Spend" so brilliantly put to use by 14 Yesrs of Socialist Governments in the UK , culminating in the "World Crisis" .
I think Sarkozy may win the election .

Today the UMP started to woo the NF ..... nom du chien

[peter]

The majority of anglophones are not eligible to vote in this Presidential election, but are naturally interested in the result.

As they say in US - Vote early and vote often ...

Thanks to Catalanglais for reminding me how to create a poll

[Christopher]

Thank doG you people don't have a vote in France.

[Brian and Helen]

"The devil you know . . ."

[Christopher]

"The devil you know . . ."

Bwahahahahahaha! Don't tell me, you're here all week and I should try the veal and tip my waitress, right?

[Las-Cobas]

Thank doG you people don't have a vote in France.

I Do !

[Christopher]

Thank doG you people don't have a vote in France.

I Do !

Then thank dog it's only one.

[catalanglais]

The debate is on French TV at the moment.

I've had to walk away as I keep shouting at the TV!

[Las-Cobas]

The debate is on French TV at the moment.

I've had to walk away as I keep shouting at the TV!

Did it shout back ? Or were you tricky and had it on mute.

[peter]

Last day for this ...

[Brian and Helen]

"The devil you know . . ."

Bwahahahahahaha! Don't tell me, you're here all week and I should try the veal and tip my waitress, right?

Sorry, Christopher, I don't quite get that?

B

[Christopher]

"The devil you know . . ."

Bwahahahahahaha! Don't tell me, you're here all week and I should try the veal and tip my waitress, right?

Sorry, Christopher, I don't quite get that?

B

I assumed you were joking, i.e. that you're a comedian.

[Brian and Helen]

I assumed you were joking, i.e. that you're a comedian.

No, in fact, actually, I'm tempted to say that I think Hollande is probably right. Economically I'm a lifelong Keynsian and austerity without the potential for growth is, in my book, a cul-de-sac. I firmly believe that now is the right time for the European economies to reflate.

My (rather throwaway) comment was to the effect that Hollande is something of an unknown quantity, so people might well opt for Sarkozy, despite (rather than because of) his track record.

Brian

[peter]

Some of the pundits think it so close Carla might swing it ...

[Brian and Helen]

So, Peter, why can't we have Carla for president?

Then we could have the play-offs between Bruni and Merkel (no prizes for that one) and we could give Berlusconi the commercial rights to stop him standing and fixing the ballots (sorry, that should be "ensuring that all interests are catered to").

After that it's a fairly straightforward run to Queen Carla of Europe, after a bit of scrimmaging with King Mario (Monti) and so success - a pair of Louboutins in every wardrobe! (Well, it's one up from Bonaparte's "chicken in every pot".)

Brian

[peter]

Perhaps we should choose a political "dream team" ?

Both Silvio and Carla would have no problem with adopting Bunga Bunga as an integral part of European politics. Not a Bunga Bunga party, but The Bunga Bunga party ?

And Carla could help with the return to traditional French values :



This man already has the matching raincoat and I understand he finds himself unexpectedly available ...

[Brian and Helen]

Excellent! So there you go - sorted.

B